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(Amended February 3, 2009)
Our interest in the real estate properties along the Flathead River, the Flathead town-site and border station, as well as the town sites of Elko and Corbin, are predicated in large part in the conviction that the election of barack Obama as President of the United States will result in a radical shift in the way the United States conducts business domestically and internationally. This will have a profound effect on Canada. We seek to position ourselves to predict, influence and profit from these changes. After 1 year, Obama and the USA still set the pace all be it in recovery.
TECHNOLOGY
The election of Barack Obama has raised security and administrative concerns related to the use of wireless technology. In the area of administration there is a need to catalogue White House communication. In the area of security, the communication must be secret and not capable of being intercepted or interfered. Obama's medium of choice for wireless communication is the Black Berry. The Black Berry is manufactured by Research in Motion (R.I.M.- T.S.X.), a Canadian Company and the security features or encryption technology provided on license to R.I.M. by another Canadian Company, Certicom (C.I.C.-T.S.X.). The fact that both head offices and research and development hubs are located outside the United States is one concern and the fact that wireless communication generated on a blackberry may be routed through Canada another but of greatest concern is that the security features or encryption technology of the Blackberry may be compromised and communication scrambled or intercepted.
C.B.C. News Jan 23, 2009" Obama's Black Berry victory raises security questions"
December 11, 2008 R.I.M. made an unsolicited take -over bid for Certicom at $1.50 a share.
Certicom went to Court and had R.I.M's bid quashed. January 23, 2009 Verisign Inc, an American Company, listed on the N.A.S.D.A.Q., announced a take- over bid had been made to Certicom at $2.10 a share and accepted by Certicom's management. On the same day as the Verisign bid was announced, the shares of Certicom ended the day trading at $2.34 a share. We have purchased Certicom at $1.80 a share and recommend it's purchase at $2.30 a share. We expect R.I.M. to re-enter the bidding for Certicom at $3.00 a share. We have purchased R.I.M. at $64 a share and R.I.M. is currently trading at $65 a share. Our target price for Certicom is $3.00 a share by March 2009, when the Verisign bid is scheduled to close. Chatter on the internet suggests that the Verisign offer will be rejected by the shareholders. R.I.M. has a valuable incentive to re-enter the bidding for Cerrticom. R.I.M. can use Certicom's accumulated tax losses against income in future years. Certicom's encryption technology is a leader in the field and used by R.I.M. competitors and industry heavyweights such as the U.S. military, I.B.M. and S.O.N.Y. Efficiency, profit and security service synergies suggest that these wireless technologies be housed under one roof.
Security of communication may be a matter of life and death and especially so for a President of the United States. It is purely conjecture but it may have been the terrorist's ability to breakdown or intercept wireless communication that contributed to their ability to neutralize India's anti terrorist units following the successful terrorist assault on the Mumbai, India hotels in December 2008.
STEM CELL RESEARCH
January 23, 2009 U.S regulators approved GERON Corp to begin the 1st human test of embryonic stem cells in humans. The press release indicates that the stem cell test will attempt to restore movement to paralyzed people by injecting nerve cells made from embryonic cells to the site of the injury. The lifting of the moratorium on stem cell research was a plank in the Obama campaign. Obama was sworn in as President January 21, 2009. January 23, 2009 the U.S food and drug administration lifted a hold placed on GERON Corp research in May 2008. GERON (NASDAQ-GERN) closed January 23, 2009 at $7.09 a share, up $1.88 a share on the day. We recommend a buy of GERON at $7.00 a share.
The approval of the resumption of the GERON trials has been applauded by the Christopher (Superman ) and Dana Reeve Foundation which is dedicated to curing spinal cord injury by funding innovative research.
Stem cells may already be deployed to help professional athletes recover from debilitating injuries
BY LINE CRICINFO, 2009-01-07
Australia v S. Africa 3rd test Sydney, 5th day
The Bravest Man in World Cricket by Peter English.
"South Africa own the bravest man in world cricket, but having Graeme Smith was not enough to secure the most dramatic of draws. Even Australians who wear green and gold tattoos tingled when the door to the dressing room opened and Smith walked out at number 11 looking to survive 8.2 overs with a broken hand, his own blood recently injected into his right elbow, and a desperate Australian attack."
The prognoses is that Smith will have recovered from the medical procedure to his elbow in 6-8 weeks, the broken hand may take longer to recover.
HEALTH CARE
President Obama's mother died at a very young age of ovarian cancer. The last months of her life were spent fighting the insurance company for benefits. barack was in his teens when his mother died. President Obama has pledged to reform the United States health care system. Obama has three alternatives health care must be either affordable, universal or a mix of unaffordable and universal.
Biologics include a wide range of medical products such as vaccines, blood and blood components, allergenic, somatic cells, gene therapy, tissues.... Biologics work by controlling the disease not the symptoms. The cost of biologic therapeutics is significantly higher than conventional pharmacology. This cost factor is particularly relevant since many biological medications are used in the treatment of chronic disease such as rheumatoid arthritis, inflammatory bowel disease, or for the treatment of otherwise untreatable cancer during the remainder of life.
January 26, 2009 Pfizer (pfe.-N.Y.S.E- $14.50) took over Wyeth-(wye-N.Y.S.E. -$43) in an exchange for cash and stock "to create the world's premier biopharmaceutical company". Some analyst's opine that Pfizer's stock will track lower to the $12 range. At the time of the takeover Wyeth was in talks with Crucell, described as a pure play vaccine company from the Netherlands (crxl- NASDAQ- $18.00) with a development platform, marketed vaccines, specialized sales force and in house manufacturing facilities. Analyst's opine that Crucell is in play at a takeover target price of $27.
Aside from the cost of development, the cost of mergers and acquisitions in the pharmacological industry as it attempts to assimilate biologics does not bode well for the new breed of biologic therapies being able to make it either to the domestic or world market at an affordable price. The evidence suggests that United States health care cannot be made affordable without imploding. The Canadian experience has taught us that universal health care is not affordable. The answer may lay in a mixture of unaffordable and universal health care, a two tiered system, one for the rich and a mandatory another, for all the others. Then only the rich and connected will be able to afford the new generation of biologics that are brought to market
GITMO
War, and for that matter peace, can be a brutal business. One of the commandments that one ignores at their peril is that the means rarely justify the end. This applies to the most recent Israel incursion into Gaza and explains President Obama's demobilization of the prisoner of war camp in Guantanamo. Means and ends may explain Obama's energy policy and soon to be rolled out infrastructure program.
ENERGY POLICY and INFRASTRUCTURE.
President Obama has set a target of 10 years for the continental United States to achieve energy self sufficiency. The U.S consumes 25 % of the world's energy resources but produces 3% of the world's power. President Obama is in the process of proposing an infrastructure program of approximately $1.2 trillion U.S. to revive the ailing U.S. economy mired in recession. The nuts and bolts of how the President proposes to harness the two ends of the energy conundrum, production and consumption, to achieve energy self sufficiency is difficult to discern, but the outline and where Canada fits into that equation not so difficult.
Canada has abundant commodities, oil, natural gas, electricity, fertilizers, metals, and minerals which Canada sells into the U.S market. Here to fore the U.S complaint was that the commodity or product was subsidized (wood) or un-safe (mad cow, bird flu). Under President Obama the United States primary complaint will be that production of the commodity is contributing to global warming, polluting (tar sands) or the by- product potentially toxic (coal-methane). In medical parlance the side effects outweigh the palliative effect. No longer will the United States be heard to complain that goods or services, product, is subsidized by the any level of Canadian government. Almost the entire Canada and U.S auto industry will soon be subsidized (G.M. and Chrysler). The world's largest insurer, A.I.G., was the recipient of several tranches of T.A.R.P. funds in the hundreds of billions of dollars from the United States Treasury. The new standard of protection for the U.S government will be environmentally friendly or carbon neutral. Tembec has already taken steps to meet that standard. This will assist Tembec's marketing in the United States in 3 ways. First, lobby groups, Senator Max Baucus of Montana, and competition, such as Plum Creek, will not be credible in arguing for the restriction of the entry of Tembec product into the United States unless U.S. producers can meet or surpass Tembec's environmental standards. Second, Tembec should emphasize their high environmental standards in marketing product in the United States and around the globe. Third Tembec should be able to service U.S. markets from mills and manufacturing plants located in Canada.
We wish to purchase those real estate assets which Tembec has divined are surplus to their requirements. We require an aggregate purchase price and a price per lot for the Flathead town-site acreage. We wish to enlist Tembec's assistance in approaching both the Federal Government and the Kinbasket Native Council to acquire the abandoned Flathead border station with a view to develop the border station and town site as energy/ power self sufficient / efficient sites harnessing all available sources of power including solar, waste (bio-diesel), wind and water. We propose to secure the aggregate purchase price for the Tembec real estate assets by increments against a portfolio of stocks which will benefit from Obama's policies, for example:
| Certicom 10,000 shares @ $3 | $ 30,000 |
| R.I.M. 1,000 shares @ $80 | 80,000 |
| I.B.M. 1,000 shares at $100 | 100,000 |
| GERON 10,000 shares at $10 | 100,000 |
| TOTAL | $310,000 |
In 2010 as Obama's energy and infrastructure program rolls out we will seek to add to the portfolio
| General Electric | 1,000 Shares |
| Burlington Northern | 1,000 Shares |
| Caterpillar | 1,000 Shares |
| Agrium or Potash Corp | 1,000 Shares |
The funds for the acquisition of stock will come from the sale of lands in Nanaimo, B.C. Refer to the web page millstone stationhouse. com and the sale of lands in Kalispell, Montana. Refer to the web page blu-white.com, presently under construction.
Other issues surrounding infrastructure include jobs and the demise of the auto sector. That is a systemic problem for which there is no magic bullet. One of the big three auto makers may be required to fail (Chrysler). Another may be required to relocate overseas (Ford in India with TATA or in China). Chinese interests are presently in negotiation to buy Ford's interest in the Swedish auto-maker Volvo. Wealth and jobs will continue to be redistributed. North American expectations will continue to be ratcheted down. That may account for a reduction in American energy consumption. It is less clear how to increase domestic production of energy given the environmental constraints. The answer may lie in nuclear power.
FOREIGN POLICY
Obama has made Afghanistan and the death of Bin Laden, one of his highest foreign policy goals. Canada is the United States largest trading partner. In rolling out the new energy policy and infrastructure program, the United States President will have to deal with the likes of Senator Max Baucus of Montana, the democrat caucus in the Senate and House, which will lobby long and hard for certain industries to be protected. The call for protection will be masked in rhetoric such as " Buy American". This will not be the language of globalization or free trade, but masks an essential truth. In matters of defence Canada has opted for the American umbrella and in matters of trade, the Americas free trade option. These programs have a cost. The cost to Canada may be to support the American mission to Afghanistan by continuing to deploy after the 2011 pullout date. A pullout from Afghanistan appears to the supported by the majority of the Canadian electorate but not so by the leaders of Canada's national parties, Steven Harper and Michael Ignatief.
To prepare for the prospect of continued deployment in Afghanistan we suggest the national political parties agree to make it a priority for the Canadian Armed Forces to begin recruiting heavily in the Indo-Canadian community and supporting cultural events directed to that community.
THE KOMAGATA MARU FESTIVAL
